Climate Change and Energy

The earth's atmosphere is made up of a delicately balanced blanket of gases, which trap enough heat to sustain life. However, by burning fossil fuels and pumping billions of tonnes of carbon dioxide (C02) and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, humans are upsetting this balance.

These gases are trapping more and more heat, warming the globe and throwing our climate into chaos.

While many greenhouse gases occur naturally, the rate that we humans are adding them to the atmosphere is far from natural. It is estimated that concentrations of CO2 are 30 percent higher than before the industrial revolution, when the wide scale burning of fossil fuels started.

Global and New Zealand effects of climate change

Scientists warn of an ecological and human catastrophe if global warming is not curbed. But we're already seeing major impacts, some of them devastating.

Annual global temperatures are on the rise, with 11 of the last 12 years ranking among the 12 warmest years on record. Closer to home, the five hottest New Zealand winters on record have all occurred since 1998 and the country is expected to warm by up to 2.8 degrees this century.

Concentrations of carbon dioxide are at their highest in 420,000 years (and probably 20 million years). Glaciers are retreating rapidly around the globe, including in New Zealand. Rising sea levels are threatening island populations. In the Maldives, whole communities have had to be evacuated.

Sea level rise, extreme weather events and agricultural loses are predicted to create up to 150 million climate refugees by the middle of this century. There are already more environmental refugees worldwide than there are political or war refugees.

A recent World Health Organisation study estimated that climate change, directly or indirectly, contributes to about 77,000 deaths a year in Asia and the Pacific.

Climate change in New Zealand threatens to play havoc with our agricultural economy. Severe droughts will increase by two to four-fold in the east of the country according to NIWA. The drought of the late 90's cost our economy $1 billion, highlighting just how vulnerable we are to these sorts of events.

Up to a third of the South Island's 3,000 glaciers could disappear, affecting our vital tourism sector. New tropical diseases like dengue fever could become viable here within 10 years, threatening human health. More rainfall (particularly in the west) and floods compounded by sea level rise could mean that insurance companies no longer insure homes against flooding, as is the case in many parts of the UK. Councils are already putting restrictions on developments in low lying areas.

In early 2007, 2,500 of the world's top climate scientists concluded with 90 per cent certainty that humans are behind these changes.

They further warned we have 10 years to act to avoid the worst climate impacts. But we still have time to cut our greenhouse pollution by using renewable energy, phasing out fossil fuels and increasing energy efficiency and conservation.

The greatest dangers - those that would result in global catastrophe - are posed by large scale and irreversible impacts, such as:

• Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets melting. Unless emissions are reduced, warming in the next 5 decades could be large enough to trigger meltdown of the Greenland ice sheet;
• the Gulf Stream slowing or shutting down; and
• massive releases of greenhouse gases from melting permafrost and dying forests.
  At all levels of climate change, developing countries will suffer the most.

Economic losses in the billions

There is much talk of what it will cost to tackle climate change and cut our greenhouse gas emissions. But what will it cost if we fail to act?
According to a report (1) released in late 2006 by sir Nicholas Stern (former Chief Economist and Senior Vice-President of the World Bank from 2000 to 2003) acting now to avoid the negative consequences of global warming will require 1% of GDP, but waiting until later will cost between 5-20% of GDP. In other words, pay 1 percent now to avert catastrophe, or do nothing and stump up five to 20 times that amount down the track.

"Business as usual will derail growth," - STERN

The report -the most comprehensive review ever carried out on the economics of climate change - also warned that global warming could inflict worldwide disruption as great as that caused by the two World Wars and the Great Depression, if we fail to act on the problem.

Some cost impacts:

• Costs of natural disasters, aggravated by global warming, could double to $150 billion euros ($288 billion NZD) a year in 10 years, according to the world's second-largest re-insurer, Swiss Re. This would land insurers with $30-40 billion euros ($57 - $77 billion NZD) in claims - the equivalent of a World Trade Centre attack each year.
  
• In New Zealand, the flooding and storms of 2004 cost over $400 million.
  
• The 1997-99 the Canterbury drought cost $230 million at the farm gate alone. Overall it cost the New Zealand economy $618 million or 0.9% in GDP.
  
• The Australian drought of 2002/03 resulted in a 30 per cent reduction in agricultural output, a net effect of a 1.6 per cent drop in GDP and 70,000 jobs.
  

  There is a danger that human intervention will accelerate and intensify natural climate changes to such a point that it will become impossible to adapt our socio-economic systems in time," stated the global insurance giant Swiss Re in their March 2004 report.
  

Rising temperatures

• New Zealand experienced one of the hottest and driest winter on record in 2005. There has been an increase in New Zealand's mean temp of 0.4 degrees Celsius
  and a decrease in cold nights and frosts by 10-20 days per year.
  
• New Zealand is expected to warm by up to 2.8 degrees in the next century, with most warming in the north.
  
• Globally, 11 of the 12 hottest years on record have all occurred in the last 12 years.
  
• In Europe the last decade was the hottest in 500 years.
  
• Near-record temperatures have hit Canada, the US, Hawaii, China, Russia and Alaska.
  
• Over 1500 people died in India when temperatures topped 49C (120F).

Extreme weather and climate chaos

One of the first signs of climate change is an increase in the number and intensity of extreme weather events such as storms, flooding, droughts and tornadoes.
The world is experiencing record numbers of these events, according to the World Meteorological Association, a specialized climate science agency of the United Nations, and climate change is to blame.

Europe's 2003 heat wave cost 30,000 people their lives and the global economy 13 billion EURO.

The 562 tornadoes which hit the United States in May 2003 was a record and far higher than the previous monthly peak of 399 in June 1992. Meanwhile Hurricane Katrina in 2005 was the costliest and one of the deadliest storms in US history.

In February 2004, New Zealand was ravaged by some of the worst storms and flooding in years. Scientists warned us to expect more and since then we've seen numerous severe weather events (tornadoes, floods and droughts) which have ravaged towns and regions.
According to projections from the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (2) the impacts of climate change will continue to intensify throughout the country:

• The risk of drought is expected to increase in already drought-prone areas, such as inland and north Otago, eastern Canterbury and Marlborough, parts of Wairarapa, Hawke's Bay, the Bay of Plenty, the Coromandel and Northland
  
• Droughts may happen in spring and autumn, not just summer
  
• Very heavy rainfall events may increase in many parts of New Zealand, even in those areas where the average annual rainfall decreases
  
• It is expected to be wetter in the west and drier in the east
  
• Temperatures are expected to increase, with greater increases in the winter, and in the north of New Zealand
  
• Frost risk is expected to decrease, while the risk of very high temperatures will increase
  
• Westerly winds are expected to increase in strength and frequency
  
• There is expected to be an increased risk of forest fires
  
• The sea level is expected to rise.
  

The frequency of severe droughts is expected to increase across many eastern parts of New Zealand by 2080. For example, in a 'low-medium' scenario, Marlborough could experience a one-in-20-year drought event every three to five years by 2080.

Meanwhile the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report (3) released in early 2007 and assessing likely risks for Australia and New Zealand, reiterated this. It found that the frequency and severity of storms will increase, along with the risk of coastal flooding by 2050

Plants and wildlife threatened

It is likely that climate change will induce mass extinction of species within 60-70 years

• 1 million species are predicted to go extinct due to global warming, most by 2050. This is a quarter of all land plant and animal species.
• 300 alpine plant species in New Zealand are threatened by extinction due to global warming
• Polar bears may disappear. The Arctic ice is already 40% thinner than in the 1960's. Arctic summers are getting five days longer every decade. Polar bears rely on the ice for hunting seals and they may lose their habitat within 100 years. Half of the alpine glaciers and large permafrost areas could disappear by the end of the 21st Century. Wetlands and tundra could vanish.
• Coral reefs everywhere would experience bleaching and mangroves damaged.
• In twenty years the Amazon rainforest could begin to dry out. This rainforest - rich in biodiversity - depends on its ability to recycle rain for survival. With trees being cut, and climate change driving up the temperatures, a lack of moisture could cause the forest's total collapse.

Melting glaciers, melting ice caps and sea level rise

New Zealand glaciers:
New Zealand could lose one third of the South Island's 3,000 glaciers within just a few decades if temperature rise by 1.5 - 4.5 ° C. The Franz Joseph glacier has retreated 1500 metres since scientific observations began in 1860. Franz Joseph, Fox and other glaciers are in an overall pattern of retreat (despite some fluctuations and short term advances).

Siberia melting:
The permafrost of western Siberia is rapidly melting which could unleash billions of tonnes of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, into the atmosphere. Scientists describe an "ecological landslide that is probably irreversible and is undoubtedly connected to climatic warming". The entire western Siberian sub-Arctic region has begun to melt, all within the last three or four years.

Arctic:
Scientists are extremely concerned about the warming in the Arctic which is causing massive ice cap melting. They warn that the record loss of sea ice in the 2005 Arctic summer shows the northern hemisphere may have crossed a critical threshold beyond which the climate may never recover.

They fear that the Arctic has now entered an irreversible phase of warming which will accelerate the loss of the polar sea ice. As the darker coloured, newly exposed land revealed as the ice melts, warms up quickly, causing even more ice to melt creating a vicious cycle of warming and melting. The Arctic has helped to keep the climate stable for thousands of years.

Antarctic:
Antarctic glaciers are rapidly melting. 87% of 244 glaciers studied on the Antarctic Peninsula have retreated over the last 50 years according to British Antarctic Survey and U.S. Geological Survey and worryingly they found that average retreat rates have accelerated.

Sea level rise:
Scientists warn sea levels could rise by almost a metre this century, spelling disaster for low lying countries like Tuvalu and Bangladesh.

Disease will spread
By 2080, 290 million people will be at risk from Malaria, say UN scientists. Infectious diseases will expand their range poleward and to higher elevations. Dengue fever and cholera will also increase.

New diseases like dengue fever may become viable in New Zealand. Pests, both plants and animals, will spread further, and cause more severe damage to our vital agricultural sector.

Food and water will be scarce
Hunger and thirst will be the ultimate result of climate change. Over the next decades the number of people at risk of water scarcity is likely to rise from tens of millions to billions. By 2025, say UN scientists, droughts will mean that five billion - or two out of three people - will lack sufficient water and millions more will starve. (4)

Steadily decreasing water availability is projected for India and other parts of South Asia and Africa: whilst the poorest parts of the world are going to the hardest hit, wealthy countries such as Australia and nations in Southern Europe are also on the front line. (4)

Reductions in food production capacity in the poorest parts of the world are projected, bringing more hunger and misery and undermining achievement of the millennium development goals. Within a few decades it is likely that we will see climate change induced wheat, maize and rice production drops in India and China.

Melting glaciers due to global warming is also starting to cause problems for people who depend on the glaciers for their fresh water supply. This may cause enormous problems in the future given that a third of the world's population - 2 billion people - rely on rivers fed by Himalayan glaciers alone.

Social upheaval
The impacts of climate change reach far beyond environmental, but are likely to cause massive social upheaval.

Extreme weather events, sea level rise, global drops in agricultural production and the spread of desert areas from climate change, will push people out of their traditional homelands, creating a wave of climate refugees.

There could be 150 million climate refugees by 2050, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

There are already more environmental refugees than there are political and war refugees.

Natural catastrophes caused more deaths in 2003 than in the last two decades, says top re-insurer Munich Re. More than 50,000 people were killed worldwide, up from 11,000 the previous year.

Look who's talking
It's not just a handful of environmentalists making the catastrophic predictions of climate change; it is 2,500 of the world's top climate scientists who comprise the leading, independent international body on the subject-the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

And because it runs on consensus, the IPCC is inherently a very conservative and cautious body. Some have gone so far as to call its predictions and conclusions "understated".

The message coming from the panel is clear, rising temperatures are already having widespread and devastating effects on the planet, and unless action is taken fast and soon, the impacts will only intensify.

Never before has humanity had to grapple with such an immense environmental crisis. If we do not take steps to stop global warming immediately, the damage will be irreversible.

References
(1) Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change, October 2006.
(2) Changes in Drought Risk with Climate Change 2005. National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research. A report for the NZ Climate Change Office, Ministry for the Environment and the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry.)
(3) IPCC WGII Fourth Assessment Report, 2007, Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Chapter II, Australia and New Zealand.
(4) IPCC WGII Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Chapter